25 July 2011

All you need to know about the Mets, right here:

Over the weekend, this tweet from Peter Gammons popped up around the internet (cap tip to Metsblog):
Interesting Elias note: since 2005, Mets are a .542 team with Wright, Reyes and Beltran in the lineup together, .480 with one or more out
Obviously, the point there was to illustrate how different a team the Mets are with and without those 3 cogs in the machine.  Personally, I find the stat meaningless since you have no idea what the team's comparative ERA might be or who else is in the lineup during those games, but I'll play along.  The Mets are a far better team with Reyes-Wright-Beltran than without.

The problem is, it's still not good enough a team.  During that same period of 2005 through today, a .542 season would not have been good enough to win a single playoff berth out of the N.L. East.  The worst winning percentage among  East Champions during that span was the Phillies' .549 in 2007, and the worst of the wild card teams was the Dodgers at .543 in '06 (N.L. standings from 2005 onward start here).  So per the figure quoted by Gammons, the safe expectation for the Mets when they have Reyes, Wright, and Beltran all playing together is to narrowly miss the playoffs.  Wouldn't you know it?  In addition to the one division title, that's exactly what happened--twice--during the peak of the Reyes-Wright-Beltran era with The Collapse and Shea Goodbye.

I almost tire of saying it: As good as these three guys may be individually, what the Mets have been doing with them simply hasn't worked, and it's past time for a new approach.

Now, what I'd really be interested in knowing is the team's record with and without Paul LoDuca.

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